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Forecast Ses

Guest listing — agent402.tools. Simple exponential smoothing (SES) - level-only forecast for series without trend or seasonality. Higher alpha (closer to 1) tracks recent values aggressively; lower alpha (closer to 0) smooths through noise. Default alpha=0.3 is a common conservative pick; pass an explicit alpha or use forecast-eval to pick the one that minimizes backtest error. Forecast is flat (= last fitted level) for all horizons.

POST https://agent402.tools/api/forecast-ses

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{
  "alpha": 0.3,
  "forecast": [
    {
      "lower95": 42.7805,
      "point": 45.4431,
      "step": 1,
      "upper95": 48.1057
    },
    {
      "lower95": 42.6633,
      "point": 45.4431,
      "step": 2,
      "upper95": 48.2229
    },
    {
      "lower95": 42.5508,
      "point": 45.4431,
      "step": 3,
      "upper95": 48.3354
    }
  ],
  "horizon": 3,
  "method": "ses",
  "n": 10
}