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Forecast Naive

Guest listing — agent402.tools. Three textbook baseline forecasts: mean (forecast = average of history), naive (forecast = last value), drift (linear extrapolation from first to last point). Use as a sanity floor - any sophisticated method (SES, Holt, Holt-Winters) should beat the best of these on a backtest, otherwise the extra complexity isn't earning its keep. Returns point forecasts + 95% prediction intervals per Hyndman §3.1.

POST https://agent402.tools/api/forecast-naive

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{
  "forecast": [
    {
      "lower95": 21.8037,
      "point": 23.3333,
      "step": 1,
      "upper95": 24.863
    },
    {
      "lower95": 22.3979,
      "point": 24.6667,
      "step": 2,
      "upper95": 26.9355
    },
    {
      "lower95": 23.0977,
      "point": 26,
      "step": 3,
      "upper95": 28.9023
    }
  ],
  "horizon": 3,
  "method": "drift",
  "n": 10
}