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Does buying a US stock that passes a published trend template and then breaks out of a tightening base beat the S&P 500, net of costs, when the rule is read literally? Pre-registered Backtrader backtest, 10.7 years of daily bars, 640 US stocks (2016 to 2026-10-02) — verdict: FAIL. FAIL means the rule did not pass the study's pre-registered bar: its out-of-sample trades trailed the S&P 500. Full text of the study, one read. A published study, not advice.

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